HOLLYWOOD—At the start of Awards Season, I was like, ok, I see where things are headed. This is going to be one of the most predictable, and boring awards seasons in years. Why? There were clear front-runners, but that has all changed. I don’t know, but it seemed the BAFTAs and Actors Awards in the past 2 weeks have changed everything. For the first time in like years, I can say that Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress and even Best Director are questionable. I’m using a betting men, but I would NOT bet too much on anything this year in the major categories.
The only race where I suspect there is no chance of an upset is Jessie Buckley who has dominated the Best Actress race for her work in “Hamnet.” If anyone else claims that prize, it will be a jaw-dropper of a surprise, but this is Oscar. It can happen people, Oscar is always finnicky. At the start of the season, Teyana Taylor was looking like the clear front-runner for Best Supporting Actress for her work in “One Battle After Another,” but something shifted in the past month. Momentum started to gain for veteran actress Amy Madigan for her stand-out performance in “Weapons.”
However, I don’t think Madigan is a shoo-in for Oscar, as I think Wunmi Mosaka is a very dark horse for her work in “Sinners.” She won the BAFTA Award recently, so honestly any of those 3 women could be victorious, but I’m going out on a limb and saying that Madigan is going to win because she’s considered long overdue, but Mosaka could be a upset. The same sentiment is echoed for Best Supporting Actor, but this is more of a two-person race for me, but there is the possibility of a very big upset if Benicio Del Toro wins for “One Battle After Another.”
At the start of the race all the talk was about Stellan Skarsgard being the front-runner for her performance in “Sentimental Value.” He has raked up a ton of awards so far, but he lost 2 big ones, The Actors Award and recently the BAFTA Award to actor Sean Penn. I will say this as I have said it before, when Penn acts, he delivers.
His Colonel Lockjaw in “One Battle After Another” is unlike any other performance or character you will witness in years. Penn is incredible in the movie, and his character is so iconic, he’s one that you talk about days, weeks, months after watching the movie. I totally believe this is Penn’s award to lose, but again with Oscar, Skarsgard could earn the sentimental vote (hint hint) because of his long career.
Delroy Lindo is that third option and so many people are happy to see him nominated after being overlooked by all the other major award shows. The argument could be made that “Sinners” dominance at the box-office with critics and moviegoers could give him the bump needed to secure a victory. I’m placing my money on Penn, wouldn’t be surprised with a Skarsgard win, but Lindo that would flabbergast me.
Now, the race that has upended in the last week was Michael B. Jordan’s victory for Lead Actor over Timothee Chalamet at the Actors Award. No one was expecting it, including me. So, for Timothee who has dominated this awards circuit to lose to Jordan who hadn’t earned any accolades for his work in the crowd-pleasing “Sinners” says a lot. I also think that recent incident at the BAFTA Awards has helped Jordan gain momentum. Chalamet is hands down fantastic in “Marty Supreme.” There is just one problem: the movie is not that great, but that hasn’t stopped the Academy Awards from bestowing trophies in the past for many of its winners who deliver exceptional performances in not-so-great movies.
I truly believe a major upset is coming on Sunday, March 15, where Chalamet who many thought would win last year for his work in “A Complete Unknown,” might see another upset this time with Michael B. Jordan winning over him for “Sinners.” Also, those two are not shoo-ins because Wagner Moura is being considered a major dark horse for his performance in “The Secret Agent.” One thing is sure; faces will be surprised when the winner for Best Actor is revealed.
Now the race that has me intrigued is Best Director. I still think that Paul Thomas Anderson is the front-runner in this race. The technical skills he displays in “One Battle After Another” is awesome. There is a particular scene near the big climax that has to be studied by film students that is so incredible and a testament to superior cinematography, editing and directing skills that it left me speechless.
The problem is you have Ryan Coogler who directed a semi-horror flick that has audiences and critics talking and all for the right reasons with a movie that is just entertaining and fantastic each time you watch. “Sinners” has gained a lot of momentum, so much to the point that that momentum could work as an advantage for Coogler. If he does win, Coogler would become the first and only African American to win the prize for Best Director in the Academy’s 98 years. It would be a historic moment and rightfully deserved if it happens.
Coogler is already winning that Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, but Best Director is not out of the picture America. Best Picture it simply a two-person race: “Sinners” vs. “One Battle After Another.” The Academy Awards can be hoity at times with its Best Picture selection ensuring an esteemed movie comes out on top over a populist flick, that is where “One Battle After Another” reigns supreme.
“Sinners” has an edge because it has 16 nominations more than any other film this year and it’s the most nominations for a movie in the Academy Awards 98 years of existence. Over recent weeks the popularity for the movie has continued to grow despite losing at the Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America to “One Battle After Another” and Paul Thomas Anderson respectively. However, “Sinners” was just victorious at the Actors Awards winning the prize for Outstanding Cast, which is equivalent to the best picture prize.
If you were to ask me a month ago who was winning the Oscar, it was hands down “One Battle After Another.” As of today, this is “Sinners” prize to lose, but it’s going to be a battle between both movies. Who at the end comes out on top, will be fun to watch. The one thing to note for the 2026 Academy Awards is the major categories will be a nailbiter to say the least.
Written By LaDale Anderson
